Back in the saddle

Happy New Year! Recently I have been thinking about some life changes that I would like to make in the new year - and resurrecting this blog is one of them. While I have been quietly trading for the past couple of years I have been remiss in documenting my predictions and results. So here's to turning over a new leaf...

Recently I heard a market analyst state that you could tell what the market will do over the course of the year by looking at the first 5 trading days. An examination of the first 5 days of trading in 2011 of the SPY shows:


SPY opened on Monday 1/3/2011 at 124.11 and closed Friday at 124.53. A change of .3% (point three). The SPY closed on 12/30/2011 at 125.50 - about a 1% move. So, the first 5 days seemed to forecast a flat market - and it turns out that even with all the market gyrations and machinations the market finished the year.....flat.

On to 2012....

At this point we have only logged 4 days of trade, so we will see what Monday brings. For now we have the SPY opening on Tuesday 1/3/2012 at 127.76 (more than a $2 gap up from the year's close). Friday's close was 127.71 - looking pretty flat so far. Stay tuned for a Monday update.