Change is afoot

I have been sitting on the sidelines for quite sometime - mainly because the market's volatility indicators, in my opinion, cannot be trusted. With that as my prevailing attitude, I have not been able to bring myself to resume trading after the whupping I took last year. Today I see change afoot - let me explain starting with a picture:



Today's big body white candle represents a pretty significant upward move after a couple of down days. On the surface it looks like the continuation of the bull rally after after a couple of days of consolidation. The volume, however, tells a different story. Today's volume of just under 118M shares traded tells the real underlying story. The last time volume was at this level were on the days surrounding the last Christmas holiday. Prior to that it was Thanksgiving. Prior to that was May 30, 2008 - arguably the first summer weekend of the 2008. These lackluster levels demonstrate complete lack of interest by institutions and large scale traders. Let's wait and see what Tuesday brings...