Friday, May 16, 2008

Talk to me VIX


Having survived the dogfight of expiration Friday somewhat intact, I find myself leaving the scene in a kind of bleary-eyed, preoccupied stupor - heading away at Mach 1, yet knowing in the back of my mind that I should re-engage. I reach deep into my soul and call out desperately for my long lost flying partner for help..."Talk to me VIX". In an instant I'm pulled back into the fray - re-energized, refreshed, and ready for battle. My old flying partner has revealed some much needed insight. I have managed to keep enough powder dry to finish what was started - victory will be mine. Now if I can just find that darn aircraft carrier...

The VIX is speaking volumes about the current market conditions - coupled with the DOW and SPX banging their heads on some very formidable overhead resistance, it seems like the end of the bear rally might be upon us. The VIX is showing the same level of complacency we saw back in October just as the market hit its highs and rolled over big time. The SPX has shown some strength in climbing back from the lows of 1275 but it has not been an easy climb. When it broke through 1385, the talking heads were quick to proclaim the bottom had been put in and we were turning to the upside, but follow through has been weak on mediocre volume. The cash is still on the sidelines. The DOW is no different - also banging up against the 200 MA and showing even greater weakness than the SPX. The DOW just can't seem to break through 13,000.

So...what am I doing? I'm mostly in cash but have some speculative PUTs on DIA and am long SDS. Up until today I was holding onto GLD for a hedge but decided to take my profits due to the weakening of the metal commodities. Also long some DUG - a small speculative position that is looking for a decline in Oil prices. I'm excited about the market opportunities that are in front of me. I'm looking for the VIX to start to move up and confirm a rollover in the broad market. Just gotta keep a clear head and listen to my gut.

"Requesting permission to buzz the tower".