The AAPL of my eye

Coming off the recent GOOG debacle in conjunction with yesterday's selling pressure on AAPL I couldn`t help but take a long position before yesterday's close - so I got in at 160.80. My thinking was that everyone will be looking at AAPL today but thinking GOOG and that will give me a nice pop in the morning, but I should be thinking to close out at 10-10:15 - before sanity breaks out. Granted a more gutsy move would have been to stay in it till late in the day (but I have a rule about knowing my exit before I enter), but I closed out a little after 10 at 164.40. Good trade - I'm happy. Now...I'm absorbing the AAPL earnings and guidance and am thinking about that lovely gap down below that was created a couple of days ago. Its 3 points from the 50% fibo at 159.20 to the bottom of the gap at 156. We've got some market movers reporting before the bell - I like my chances of filling that gap and will be looking for a short entry first thing in the morning.

SPY - take 2

The SPY didn't confirm the breakout above the inverted H & S neckline so I left it alone, however, the weakness got me thinking about the SDS (Ultrashort S & P 500 ETF) and SKF (Ultrashort Financials). Neither made very big moves, but they were fairly predictable and provided some nice day trade profits. Tomorrow is another day for the SPY - with AAPL reporting after the close you may have to wait another day for the big SPY bull move but I can be patient. Just keep watching that neckline for a strong break above. The bottoming tails on the last 2 daily candles tells a story of bulls that are chomping at the bit. Lastly, take a look at the AD study on the following chart - the institutions are accumulating.

SPY - what's the story?

I'm looking long and hard at the SPY after it closed today and I'm of the opinion that we are seeing an inverted head and shoulders pattern confirming with a neckline at about 138.50. MACD, STO and RSI show bullish strength - and the OBV is started to climb out of the doldrums. Combined with the general herd mentality that *wants* to take the market higher, I think we have the potential for a pretty significant upside move. We have some formidable overhead resistance - the 78.6 (140.26) & 61.8 (143.61) fibos, a downtrend line, and a 200 MA - so things could go either way, but we are at a short term pivot point (138.55). As of this writing, the futures are down a bit, indicating that we might test the bull's resolve in the morning. Today's light volume only validates the basic indecision of the market but tomorrow's earnings announcements should remedy that (AT&T, Coach, Dupont, McDonalds, etc). If the open is strong and holds until 10:00, I'm buying.